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STORM
Forecasting Results page
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To submit a forecast, head off to the STORM Forecasting Contest Submission Form. |
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STORM
Forecasting Contest Rules and Scoring
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The scoring of forecasts is very simple. You will find two scores in the results tables, a temperature score and a precipitation score. The temperature score is simply the sum of the absolute difference between the forecast high/low temperature, and the actual high/low temperature: |Forecast High - Actual High| = High Score |Forecast Low - Actual Low| = Low Score Temperature Score = High Score + Low Score So, for example, if you forecast 20 for a low and 40 for a high, and the actual low and high temperatures were 25 and 45 respectively, you would have a temperature score of 5 + 5 = 10. Precipitation scores are a little less straightforward. You will submit a probability of precipitation (POP) forecast in percent (%) for two periods. If no precipitation occurred during a period, your score for that period is simply your POP forecast. If measurable precipitation occurred (trace doesn't count!), then your score is 100 - (your POP forecast). No Precipitation: Period 1 or 2 Score = POP Forecast Precipitation Occurs: Period 1 or 2 Score = 100 - POP Forecast Precipitation Score = Period 1 Score + Period 2 Score So, for example, if you forecast 20% for period one and 60% for period two, and period one had no precipitation and period two had measurable precipitation, your precipitation score would be 20 + 40 = 60. |
Last Modified:
10/02/07 |
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