STORM Forecasting Results page

To submit a forecast, head off to the STORM Forecasting Contest Submission Form.

To retrieve forecast results from a previous day, enter the Teacher/Group Name and Date (date forecast was submitted) in the text boxes below and click Submit.

For example, if you or your students submitted a forecast on January 1, 2005 for January 2, 2005, you would need the results from the day the forecast was submitted, January 1, 2005, and would enter "20050101" (without the quotes, of course).

Teacher/Group Name case-sensitive, e.g. Smith, smith and SMITH are not the same

Date of Forecast format: YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050601 is June 1, 2005)



STORM Forecasting Contest Rules and Scoring

The scoring of forecasts is very simple. You will find two scores in the results tables, a temperature score and a precipitation score.

The temperature score is simply the sum of the absolute difference between the forecast high/low temperature, and the actual high/low temperature:

|Forecast High - Actual High| = High Score

|Forecast Low - Actual Low| = Low Score

Temperature Score = High Score + Low Score

So, for example, if you forecast 20 for a low and 40 for a high, and the actual low and high temperatures were 25 and 45 respectively, you would have a temperature score of 5 + 5 = 10.

Precipitation scores are a little less straightforward. You will submit a probability of precipitation (POP) forecast in percent (%) for two periods. If no precipitation occurred during a period, your score for that period is simply your POP forecast. If measurable precipitation occurred (trace doesn't count!), then your score is 100 - (your POP forecast).

No Precipitation: Period 1 or 2 Score = POP Forecast

Precipitation Occurs: Period 1 or 2 Score = 100 - POP Forecast

Precipitation Score = Period 1 Score + Period 2 Score

So, for example, if you forecast 20% for period one and 60% for period two, and period one had no precipitation and period two had measurable precipitation, your precipitation score would be 20 + 40 = 60.


Last Modified: 10/02/07